5 FACTORS IMPACTING THE CURRENT PROPERTY MARKET RIGHT NOW

By Jaco Grobbelaar - REAL ESTATE INVESTOR MAGAZINE

The property investment world is constantly evolving, and staying on top of the latest trends and analyses is essential if you want to succeed in this highly competitive market.

In this article, we explore 5 of the most important trends and analyses to consider if you want to make informed decisions and stay ahead of the property investment game.

1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
The real GDP growth in South Africa (SA) was 2.6% in 2022, and the IMF projects it to be 1.2% and 1.3% in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

2. INFLATION
Statistics SA shows that the annual consumer price inflation in SA declined for the third consecutive month to 6.9% in January 2023 compared to 7.2% in December 2022.  The current prime interest rate in SA is 10.75%. Many economists believe that interest rates are nearing the top before they will begin to stabilise.

3. PROPERTY PRICE GROWTH
 According to Lightstone's Residential Property Index (end of December 2022), property prices' current annual capital growth is 2.7%.  Paul-Roux De Kock (Chief Analytics Officer at Lightstone) said these three scenarios suggested that House Price Inflation (HPI) in SA for 2023 would likely come in between 0.9% (low) to 2.3% (mid) or 3.7% (high). Interestingly, Lightstone also says that coastal properties have performed better than non-coastal properties and that properties valued at less than R250 000 and secondly properties valued between R250 000 and R700 000 have outperformed the other value bands.

4. COLLECTIONS AND GOOD STANDING
According to the TPN Rental Monitor Residential Sector Q2 2022 Report, residential tenants in good standing have recovered to 82.2%, which is at pre-pandemic levels. The upper to mid-level brackets recorded their best good standing ever!

5.RENTAL ESCALATIONS
According to the PayProp Rental Index Q4 2022 Report, growth has rebounded impressively over the last five quarters since Q3 2021, when we recorded Year-on-Year growth of just 0.2%.  Currently, rental escalations are sitting at 3.4%. It has now recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR PROPERTY INVESTORS

As property investors, we must understand how certain trends and economic factors impact our investments. Here's my take on the current property forecast and economic outlook and what it means for your property investments.

Your ungeared return on property is your capital growth and net rental yield, which is currently a very decent return. Right now, your average property price growth is ±3%, and your average net rental yield can be 6% to 8%.

Property price growth is also continuing to rise, and I believe it could be significantly higher in the future. Here are my three reasons why:

1. Average property price growth since 2000 is 9.5%, which is significantly higher than the 2.7% we are currently experiencing. Higher property price growth is in our future!

2. Property's input costs, including construction materials (such as concrete, bricks, steel, etc.), construction worker labour costs, and land prices, have increased faster over the last decade than property prices increased, which can also lead to higher future property price growth.

3. Rental escalations, which determine your rental yields on property, are also higher than property price growth in SA. This could also lead to higher property price growth in future.

Despite uncertainties in the property investment sector, I still believe in the power and potential of property investment. There are endless opportunities for growth and success, and I, for one, intend to make the most of them!